Ford 400 Preview

What: Ford 400
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway (1.5-mile oval)
Distance: 267 laps, 400.5 miles
When: November 22, 2009
Green Flag: 3:30 PM (ET)
TV: ABC
Defending Winner: Carl Edwards

Questions To Be Answered Sunday

• How will Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus approach this race? Will they be conservative until the championship is clinched or will they treat this race like any other and let the cards fall where they may?
  
  
• With nothing really to lose and a championship to gain, how will Mark Martin approach Sunday?
  
  
• Can Jeff Gordon finally snag a win on the one track on the Sprint Cup schedule where he has never won a race before?
  
  
• In a year when Jack Roush has been anything but dominant, but at a track where his cars have won for the last five years, can a Roush owned car find victory lane for just the fourth time in 2009?
  

Ford 400 By the Numbers

• 108-Points Mark Martin trails Jimmie Johnson by.
  
  
• 30-Largest point’s deficit a driver has overcome in the season’s finale race to win the championship.
  
  
• 25th-Lowest position Jimmie Johnson can finish without Martin having problems and still clinch his fourth-consecutive championship.
  
  
• 12.0-Mark Martin’s average Homestead finish.
  
  
• 13.6-Jimmie Johnson’s average Homestead finish.
  
  
• 5-Consecutive Homestead wins for Jack Roush.
  
  
• 0-Homestead wins for Rick Hendrick.
  
  
• 1987-Last year when a driver (Bill Elliott) won both the opening and closing races of the year.
  

Contenders

1) Jeff Gordon
This is the one and only track on the Sprint Cup schedule where Gordon has never tasted victory, but don’t let that fact lead you to believe that Gordon doesn’t run well here. In 10 starts, Gordon has five top-5s and eight top-10s with an average finish of 9.9.

2) Kurt Busch
Busch is incredibly hit-or-miss at Homestead with finishes of 5th, 43rd, 2nd, and 43rd in his last four starts. But if the trend holds true you can expect Busch to be up among the leaders on Sunday. Also worth noting, Busch will be running the same car that he won with at Texas a couple of weeks back.

3) Mark Martin
Martin will be driving the same car that he’s won twice with this year at Darlington and Chicagoland and it’s safe to say that he will be looking to lead as many laps as possible with the championship still – barely – up for grabs. Intermediate tracks have been good to this team this year and there is no reason not to expect that to continue this weekend.

Sleepers

1) Carl Edwards
With his season not coming anywhere close to meeting his or really anyone’s expectations for that matter, Edwards should be motivated to end his season on a high note. The good news for Edwards is that Homestead-Miami Speedway is a track that he always runs well at, including a commanding win here last year.

2) Clint Bowyer
This team is quietly finishing the season strongly with back-to-back top-10s the last two weeks. There’s no reason not to expect the RCR revival to continue on Sunday.

3) AJ Allmendinger
Driving a Ford has agreed with Allmendinger, who in two starts driving with the blue oval on his hood hasn’t finished worse than 13th. And Allmendinger in his one Homestead start crossed the line in 11th last year.

The Official “Racing Geek” Pick: Jeff Gordon

I thought long and hard about going with one of three Roush guys – Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle or Matt Kenseth – because of their past success in South Florida. I mean five straight wins is an incredibly hard stat to ignore. However you also can’t ignore just how much Roush-Fenway has struggles this year.

Needing a winner I kept coming back to Jeff Gordon. Despite never having won here before, Gordon nonetheless has been competitive every time he’s turned a lap at Homestead, logging top-10 finishes in six out of the last seven races.

Also playing into my decision to tab Gordon as the winner is the fact that I just have this sense that Gordon will be hungry to end his year with a victory. As I mentioned in my piece on him earlier in the week, Gordon has won only one race the past two-years. My thinking is that Gordon wants to head into the offseason with momentum and a win on his side and use Homestead as a building block for 2010.

Ask The Geek

Q: With this season being all but over, who’s your early pick to win the championship in 2010?
--Terry

A: If we have learned anything these last four years it’s that it would be silly to bet against the 48 team. I am of the belief that Jimmie Johnson has to be considered the odds-on-favorite until someone beats him for the championship. It hasn’t happened the last four years so what evidence do we have that it’s going to happen next year?

Now if I had to pick one driver outside of Johnson to win the title next year, I would probably would lean towards either Denny Hamlin or Kyle Busch. At gunpoint I would have to go with Hamlin. I think he’s really come into his own this year, both on and off the track. If that team can just stop shooting themselves in the foot with ill-timed mistakes, they have what it takes to take the 48 down. Not saying it’s going to happen, just that saying outside of the Lowes juggernaut I would give them the nod ahead of everyone else.

Q: How bad of a season has Junior really had?
--Joe

A: Well Joe, statistically speaking, this is Junior’s worst season ever, by a mile. He’s buried back 24th in points; he has zero wins and really hasn’t come all that close all year to getting one; and he has nine, count’em, nine finishes of 35th or worse. On top of that he’s driving for an owner whose other three cars are currently 1-2-3 in the points and combined have won 13 races on the year. So yeah, it’s been a rough year for Junior.

On the other hand, those nine finishes of 35th mask how competitive Junior –at times – has been this year. He’s had top-5/10 finishes at Phoenix (twice), Talladega, New Hampshire, Kansas, Martinsville, and Texas; all wiped-out in the closing laps either due to mechanical failures, accidents not of his own doing or poor fuel mileage. You turn those finishes around and Junior’s season starts to look a whole lot better than it is now.

Q: What’s your take on the Denny [Hamlin] – [Brad] Keselowski skirmish?
--Allan

A: I think both drivers are young and aggressive who hate backing down, and because of that they have naturally butted heads.

And I honestly believe that despite what NASCAR says publically they have to be smiling behind the scenes. A good, heated rivalry is exactly what this sport has been missing. There hasn’t been a feud between two drivers who blatantly hate each other the way Hamlin and Keselowski do since I don’t know when, maybe Earnhardt-Elliott or Earnhardt-Bodine?

I know NASCAR doesn’t want drivers intentionally crashing into each other, you can’t when your running as fast as they guys do on almost a weekly basis. But this is a good thing for the sport. If you don’t think so, then why are ESPN and all the other media outlets feasting on this? This is captivating and this is what makes people want take time out of their busy schedules and watch.

My only problem with these two going at it on the track is that it’s happening during the Nationwide Series races and not during the Cup races on Sunday. If it were the other way around, I promise you that the TV ratings would be a lot higher than they are now.

Q: Do think Chad Knaus is going to get burned-out the way his mentor Ray Evernham did?
--Joey

A: Absolutely I see it happening. It’s inevitable. You can’t push yourself the way Evernham and Knaus do – and really any crew chief worth anything – does and not expect to one day wake up and realize that you can’t keep doing this to yourself. It’s human nature.

I told a friend of my before the season started that if Johnson for one reason or another fell out of contention, that Knaus would step-down from atop the pit box. The situation to me was no different then when Evernham walked away in 1999. It was just too much and he needed a break. I fully expected Knaus to hit that point sometime this year.

While of course that didn’t happen, would anyone really be shocked if in the offseason Chad Knaus announced his resignation or took a different, less stressful job where he could he recharge his batteries? To be honest with you, I would be shocked if it doesn’t happen sometime in the next year.

Q: What’s the latest news on the Danica front?
--Mark

A: I refuse to answer this question based on my continued protest to discuss anything Danica related until she actually announces something tangible. Seriously, has any driver kept their name in the news more than Danica without actually doing anything? She’s like the Paris Hilton of motorsports.

Q: How surprised were you that the IndyCar Series announced a new series sponsor?
--Roy

A: Well, I wasn’t completely floored if that’s what you’re asking. I mean the IRL had been saying for a few months that they were working on deal and that they were getting closer by the day.

The big question going forward is whether IZOD can attract enough new fans and entice the old ones to comeback to make to open-wheel relevant in this country once again? There is an enormous amount of work to be done and hopefully with the influx of IZOD cash – reportedly $20 million per year – the IRL can finally, and I can’t stress this enough, finally start addressing the numerous issues that are plaguing them (marketing, attendance, car counts, long-term planning, etc.).

Q: If you were to start a NASCAR car team, who would be your driver and who would you get to call the shots on pit road? And what manufacture would you align yourself with?
--Gary

A: Great question Gary, but let’s expound upon it a bit.

First, let’s be realistic about this. In a perfect world I would want either Jimmie Johnson or Tony Stewart to be one of my drivers. And I certainly would want Chad Knaus to be the crew chief. But we both know that’s not going to happen. So let’s only talk refer to drivers who I would have a reasonable shot at getting to sign with my new team and guys who I know I could bring in to be my head wrenches.

And of course, since owning a single-car team is the equivalent of running a marathon without sneakers, we’re going to assume that my new venture has the capital to run two cars fulltime.

The first driver I would want to sign would be Kasey Kahne. He’s a free agent after next year and it’s no secret that he won’t be with Richard Petty Motorsports beyond that. You bring in Kahne and you immediately have a driver who can, with good equipment –which we will provide – win races and contend for a championship. Kahne runs well on all type of tracks, particularly intermediate tracks, which just happen to make up the bulk of the schedule.

Because Kahne is considered a veteran and not someone who needs a teammate with experience, I would look to bring in a younger driver for my second car. With the caveat however being that whomever I select is ready to compete and isn’t someone with a history of tearing up equipment. Remember this is a brand-new team and we don’t need to be constantly rebuilding and fixing racecars.

I’m a big fan of James Buescher, but he needs a lot more seasoning before he’s ready to jump up to Sprint Cup. I would however look to sign him for my Nationwide Series team, which I would be starting not only to develop drivers but crew members as well.

The choice for my second driver is someone who has briefly had a taste of life as a Sprint Cup driver and someone who I believe with a little bit more seat-time in a Cup car, will show that me giving him a second chance was more than justified. My choice would be Aric Almirola, who has rebounded from seeing his Cup ride disintegrate earlier in the year due to lack of sponsorship, to having some success in the Truck Series as a teammate to Kyle Busch. That shows that Almirola has perseverance and moxie, both traits I greatly admire.

With Kahne and Almirola in place, my next task would be to bring in the guys who work on the cars. The one guy I would immediately place a phone call to is Greg Zipadelli, but the odds of him taking my phone are about the same as me finding a real job, which means slim-to-none.

So with Zippy crossed off my list I would turn my attention towards Jimmy Fennig, who soon will be reassigned by Jack Roush to handle R&D. Fennig is too good of a crew chief and too good of a mentor to be wasted doing R&D. Fennig would be a perfect compliment to pair with a young driver like Almirola. It would take some time and patience, but in time this pairing would pay dividends.

As for whom I would sign to be Kasey Kahne’s crew chief; let’s just say it’s a guy who he’s quite familiar with. And this gentleman in question also happens to be a three-time championship-winning crew chief.

I am speaking of course of Ray Evernham.

Evernham is bored and probably – with the right offer of course – could be enticed to return to life on the road. And having the chance to work with a driver whose talents he greatly admires wouldn’t hurt my chances of signing him either. Evernham might be the only guy out there with the capability to give Chad Knaus and the 48 team a run for their money.

An added benefit too is that a Kahne-Evernham pairing would instantly grab headlines and make my team extremely attractive to potential sponsors. We call that a win-win situation.

Gary, in regards to what manufacture I would align my team with, that’s about as no-brainer as they come.

There’s no guarantee that GM or Dodge will be around long-term, and long-term stability is essential if my new team is going to be successful. So signing with either one of them is not feasible.

And because Jack Roush has a monopoly on all things related to Ford that means they’re out of the running.

Which leaves only Toyota left, which works just fine for me considering their commitment level is second-to-none and the fact that after JGR, there really is no clear-cut number two team.

The above blueprint is more than realistic, and is almost guaranteed for success from the get go. Therefore if anyone out there with a fat checkbook sees this, feel free to give me a call and we will make it happen.

You have a question for the Geek’s mailbag, email it to Jordan@theracinggeek.com.

Eight Years Later Gordon Still Looking for Title No. 5

Do you realize how different the Sprint Cup Series was just eight years ago? Think about it for a minute. Go ahead its ok, we have plenty of time.

Jimmie Johnson was just finishing up his final year in what was then called the Busch Series, and getting ready to embark on his rookie year in Sprint Cup. Tony Stewart had yet to win a Sprint Cup title, let alone two. To really make everyone feel old, Joey Logano was 11; Winston was still the series’ title sponsor; and the Chase for the Championship wasn’t even an idea on the bottom of Brian France’s notebook. Jack Roush was still seeking his first Sprint Cup championship. Kyle Busch – with about the same maturity level he still has today – was still three years away from making his first Cup start, and Jeff Gordon was celebrating his fourth, and to date, last championship.

Wow, wait a second. What was that last one?

Cue the lights coming on and the music coming to a halt.

It’s been eight years since Jeff Gordon last won a championship? That can’t be right?

I mean after all, this is the guy who is often regarded as one of the best NASCAR drivers of all-time. A driver whose 82 career wins is good enough for sixth on the all-time wins list. A driver who is driving for the same team that he won his four titles with and yet Gordon is no closer to Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt’s career championship mark then he was eight years ago.

That doesn’t diminish what Gordon has accomplished in his remarkable career. But what once seemed a given – that Gordon would equal or surpass Petty and Earnhardt’s championship total – is now anything but.

Since winning his fourth crown, Gordon has come remarkable close to winning his fifth title. In 2007 it took a Herculean effort from Hendrick tablemate Jimmie Johnson. The same thing probably could be said of this year. There’s no denying that if it weren’t for Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon would be lot closer to seven then he is now. But the fact of the matter is Gordon is still looking for championship number five.

Does that mean he’s not going to get it? Absolutely not. Gordon is only 38 and still drives for the best owner in the garage. Not to mention Jimmie Johnson can’t keep winning championships forever. Well, actually, at this point it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Johnson win every title from now until 2020.

But does Gordon really want to win another championship. Of course Gordon will say yes if he was asked. But deep down inside, if Gordon is honest with himself, I think he would say that the same fire that propelled him in the 90’s is no longer there.

Does the following statement sound something like the 90’s version Gordon would say?

“I’m a little disappointed in that [not winning more races in 2009],” Gordon said. “We’ve had a bunch of second-place finishes this year, so we’ve been close. But it is disappointing we haven’t been able to get more victories. It gives us something to work on for next season.”

It sure doesn’t to me. It sounds a lot like a driver who wishes he had won more this year, but is accepting of the fact that things just didn’t go there way and doesn’t seem to bothered by the fact that it didn’t.

Would the Jeff Gordon of the 90’s have been content with winning just once in his last 71 starts?

No.

You would think following a year after being shutout of victory lane for the first time since his rookie year that whatever issues need addressing in the offseason would have been addressed last offseason, not this coming one.

It’s hard not to believe that the 90’s version of Jeff Gordon that steamrolled the competition with all the compassion of an assassin would have someway, somehow willed his team to victory lane more than once these last two-years.

Time changes drivers though and Gordon is no longer the same driver he once was.

But that doesn’t mean Gordon isn’t still a great driver despite not winning at the same frequency as he once did. He’s only finished lower than ninth in points once this decade and his average finish in the yearend standings is an astonishing fifth.

Gordon is still as good of a driver as anyone in the garage not named Johnson.

What will be interesting to see – and only time will tell – is how Gordon’s career will look 10-15 years from now. Especially when you take into consideration what Johnson has accomplished during the most competitive era of NASCAR. In eight years Gordon has gone from being one of the greatest drivers ever to not even the greatest driver of his generation.

NASCAR Power Poll

1. (1) Jimmie Johnson
In eight full seasons Jimmie Johnson has won 47 races and what will be four championships after Sunday’s race. Outside of maybe Richard Petty, has any driver dominated the way Johnson has? And remember, Johnson has accomplished all this in the most competitive era in NASCAR history. Petty can’t say the same thing.

2. (2) Mark Martin
Mark Martin has finished second to Dale Earnhardt (twice), Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and now Jimmie Johnson. That’s a who’s who of NASCAR immortality and nothing that Martin should be ashamed of.

3. (4) Kurt Busch
I stumbled across this email from Roger Penske to departing crew chief Pat Tryson: Are you sure you want to leave a team as good as this one? While I know Kurt can be a bit of a curmudgeon and his people skills are lacking, and yes, his ears still look funny but we’re on the cusp of something very special here. We need you to stay. Plus, you do know that you will be working for Michael Waltrip, right? Please stay! Don’t make me beg, because it’s not beneath me to. -RP

4. (3) Jeff Gordon
The Drive for Five has evolved from Gordon pursuing his fifth championship as a driver to chasing his fifth championship as an owner.

5. (6) Denny Hamlin
You would think that a driver who has finished first, second and third in three out of the last four races would be higher in the points. But then you realize that Hamlin also has Chase finishes of 37th, 42nd, and 38th and then it makes perfect sense why Hamlin finds himself sitting eighth in points.

6. (9) Juan Pablo Montoya
It’s been a great year, a career year actually for Montoya, but realistically at some point doesn’t he have to win? I mean if guys like David Reutimann, Brian Vickers, Jamie McMurray, and Brad Keselowski can find their way to victory lane, why can’t Montoya, who is a decidedly better driver?

7. (7) Greg Biffle
Biffle has won a race every year he has competed fulltime in Sprint Cup. But unless he turns the trick Sunday at Homestead – something he’s done three times prior, a track best – this will be the first year that Biffle is shutout of victory lane.

8. (NR) Jeff Burton
The biggest mover in this week’s Power Poll and deservedly so. Burton comes into the year’s finale race working on a streak of three consecutive top-10 finishes. If you’re looking towards next year at drivers expected to contend for a spot in the Chase, you’d be remiss not to include Burton in the discussion.

9. (5) Tony Stewart
Yes, Stewart would be leading the points under the old system, but that and $1.25 will get you a bottle of soda. What Stewart fans need to be asking themselves is what happened to the consistency that become the hallmark of this team during the regular season. It’s been MIA during the Chase, which is why Stewart hasn’t really been a factor since the playoffs started.

10. (NR) Clint Bowyer
This is yet another driver and team to keep an eye on when making a list of 2010 Chase contenders. And it’s no coincidence that Bowyer’s revival has mirrored that of Richard Childress Racing. Which proves my theory about Bowyer correct; he’s the most underrated driver in Sprint Cup. You give him the right equipment and he will win races and make the Chase regularly.

Thoughts on a Knockout Win

• If yesterday’s race were a fight, the referee would have stopped the race with 50 laps to go and declared Jimmie Johnson the winner. Johnson led a total of 238 laps and never once appeared to be anything other than guy to beat. And on top of that, the referee might as well declare Johnson your 2009 Sprint Cup champion, because boys and girls, despite what they might try to tell you differently, this championship is effectively over. Johnson might as well starting clearing some space on his mantel because in a week he’s going to have yet another championship trophy sitting next to his other three.
  
  
• Yesterday’s win was Johnson’s seventh on the year and his fourth win in nine Chase races. Simply put Johnson ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­is a coffee drinker. For those who don’t know what that reference means, the clip from the classis movie Glengarry Glen Ross below explains all.
  
  
  
  
• If you bought a ticket for Homestead hoping to see all sorts of championship drama, I don’t know what to tell you, expect that I’m…sorry. The Truck Series title is officially over. All Kyle Busch has to do is start the Nationwide Series race to secure his first NASCAR championship of any kind. And Jimmie Johnson has put such a stranglehold on the Cup side of things that Sunday’s race is an exercise in futility. At least the weather is nice in Miami this time of the year.
  
  
• As much as Dale Earnhardt’s calling card was his aggressiveness, Jeff Burton’s trademark as a driver has always been consistency. That consistency was never more evident than last year when Burton rolled off 17-consecutive finishes of 15th or better to start the year. This year has been a different story for a variety of reasons and the consistency that Burton has always demonstrated has been missing for much of 2009. Now with a runner-up finish yesterday and top-10 runs the past two weeks prior, the consistent Burton is back and has returned to running at the front.
  
  
• With a win last weekend at Texas and sixth-place finish yesterday that saw Kurt Busch running near the front all day, if I were Pat Tryson I might want to rethink my decision to leave Penske Racing at the end of the year. I know that Kurt Busch isn’t the easiest driver to work and that at times he can be as grating as nails on a chalkboard, the fact is he and Busch seem to have formed a special connection that very few driver-crew chief combinations have. It’s too bad that they won’t be together next year because with the way they have finished 2009 it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to call the blue deuce a championship contender. Alas, it’s not going to happen. But that shouldn’t prevent Roger Penske from making Tryson a Godfather offer to stick around at least for one more year.
  
  
• Apparently Tony Stewart isn’t too enamored with Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s driving ability. After getting caught up in the nine-car melee that was started after Junior lost control of his car coming off of Turn-4, Stewart reportedly slammed his hands against the wheel and called Junior a “no talent (fill in the blank).”
  
  
• Just to dispel any rumors, and while none of them may have sniffed at the lead, let alone the top-10, there were actual cars on the racetrack that were carrying the Ford insignia yesterday. For the record, AJ Allmendinger was best in class crossing the line 13th.
  
  
• For those who care -- and to be honest, I’m not really sure all that many people do, outside of NASCAR executives hoping for a boost in attendance and television ratings – but our long nightmare may be continuing a little while longer. For those who don’t know what I’m referring to, I’m talking about Danica Patrick and the never-ending will she-or-won’t she debate about her coming to NASCAR. Now it appears that Ms. Patrick isn’t sure about crossing over quite yet and might wait until 2011 to make the move. God help us all and please make this ride stop, I want off.
  
  

If you have a comment or a question for The Racing Geek, drop me a line at jordan@theracinggeek.com.

Photo courtesy of NASCAR Media/Getty Images